This past Friday, April 19, the Goldfarb Center hosted Amy Walter, a Colby alumna and member of the Board of Trustees, as a part of its “In the News” lecture series. Walter is a political analyst, and Editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report as well as a contributor to a variety of other news platforms. The talk was moderated by Alison Beyea of the Goldfarb Center and current Colby student Shane Baldwin ‘25, a government and Spanish major, who interned at the Cook Political Report through the JanPlan “Hill to Hill” program. This was the third segment of the “In the News” series.
Walter began her talk by addressing the fact that not since the second election of Grover Cleveland, in 1892, has there been a rematch of presidential candidates and that “none of us really know what we’re getting into” with this election. People have to choose between a change of course or keeping the same: “Four more years of Biden, or four more years of Donald Trump.”
Right now Biden is seen 23 points less favorable. Biden’s job approval rating is “lower than any president in modern times” who would go on to win a second term. Meanwhile, Donald Trump “isn’t any more popular than he was in 2020,” according to Walter. Trump used to be 5 points ahead of Biden on the economy, “today it’s double digits.” Walter said, “People are feeling more comfortable with what it was like to have Donald Trump’s presidency–not him personally.” The challenge for the Biden campaign, then, is to increase voters’ aversion to another Trump presidency.
To open the conversation up, the presenters asked students what political issues they deemed most important. Audience responses ranged from oil prices and reproductive freedoms to Biden’s cognitive capacity, the Israel-Hamas war, and border issues. In addition to these and numerous other issues, Walter said that “A record number [of Americans] are going to go into this election disliking both candidates.”
She believes that most people will start paying attention when the election is knocking on the door. “Where the center is in September and October is going to be the most important.” Questions on abortion will be on the ballot in some states and this is a turnout engine, but Walter wonders how the people who respond to reproductive threats will vote for other candidates. Polling shows Democrats and Independents believe that Trump caused the Dobbs v. Jackson decision, in which the Supreme Court ruled against a constitutional right to abortion. Republicans are more split on the abortion issue, with voters being put in a hard spot when their party makes a decision that conflicts with their own values. “A good 20% of the people who are gonna show up and vote for enshrining abortion law in that state are going to vote for Trump,” said Walter.
The fact is that Republicans are more popular on a lot of issues right now, but abortion is not one of them. According to Walter, abortion is a “centerpiece issue that is going to be very helpful for Democrats” but it might not be the deciding factor.
Moving on to another topic, Beyea asked about the rural-urban voter divide. Walter used an example of a candidate running in West Virginia who rallies voters against “elites” in order to protect their way of life. Walter argued that the “us vs them” mentality is the easiest political tool to use. She acknowledged that the divide has been seen to be mainly among white voters but that it is beginning to occur among voters of color as well. Today there are fewer contested seats, with a clearer red-blue divide. Walter “hope[s] we do a better job of appreciating the nuances” in those communities.
One student in the audience asked, “How does Trump win back the white female vote?” Walter thinks that Trump will make up for them with voters of color with whom he is gaining support. Though these voters don’t necessarily like Trump, they also dislike Biden and think Trump can deliver better. In contrast, the Biden campaign can probably count on its past voters, but people who haven’t shown up in the past are more willing to vote for Trump. Overall, voters under 25 have been saying that they are dissatisfied with both candidates. The panel asked students who they’d like to see on the ballot, to which the audience responded, “Charlie Baker,” “Phil Scott” and “Joe Manchin.” Next, Walter asked what students would think if Biden was 20 years younger, and there was a sentiment of “yes” from the audience.
On the topic of alternative candidates, Baldwin brought up RFK Jr., an independent candidate in the race. Walter told the audience that Democrats have shown themselves to be more worried about RFK Jr. than Republicans are. Kennedy has some name appeal, and his name will be on important ballots, like those in Michigan and Nevada.
Another challenge for Biden is that he has a much lower floor than Trump, meaning his base is not as secure. According to Walter, people do not vote for Biden so much as they vote against Trump, so Biden has to make his campaign about Trump. Trump won in 2016 because people didn’t want Hillary Clinton, but in the 2020 election, 75% of Trump’s voters genuinely supported him rather than just opposing Biden. In contrast, Biden has 36% of his base in support of him and not just anti-Trump. Walter’s theory is that Trump is doing better in the race right now compared to Biden, but he has a lower ceiling than Biden. In other words, Trump could have a chance if Biden loses a significant amount of votes to a third candidate such as RFK Jr. However, RFK Jr. is probably more in line with a Trump-type voter.
Another question from the audience was if the current state of affairs is a temporary period of political instability in America or if it will be permanent. Walter replied that a lot of Republicans after this era will assume they need to be like Trump to win, but only Trump has effectively utilized this model. Trump knows how to get media attention, so he transcends traditional politics. However, in the long run, this is not a sustainable brand for a Republican candidate. As for the left, Walter said, “Democrats love technocrats,” whereas Republicans want outsiders or businessmen and think that technocrats are the problem.
Dev Purohit ‘25 asked about the role of the vice president in the upcoming election and who the Trump campaign might be looking for. Most likely, Walter believes the vice-presidential candidate will not make a huge impact on the results. She thinks that, for Trump, picking the vice president will be “like the Apprentice,” and stressed that it is “absolutely not” going to be Nikki Haley.
Another student asked if othering politics has led to more radicalization and if there is going to be a point when people dive back into moderate politics. Walter admitted that right now division is being promoted but offered that the United States has only existed as a multi-ethnic, multi-racial democracy for about 60 years–that is a hard thing to be. She said, “Barack Obama was a transformational candidate” because he leaned into bringing voters together, as did John McCain. Democrats have continued to make that choice, and those radical politics of othering only worked for Trump and the Republican Party once. So, perhaps, we can return to a more moderate politics.
To conclude, Baldwin asked how we can stay informed heading into the elections this fall. Walter encouraged students to use the opportunity of being surrounded by scholars, but also to try to engage in conversations that are meaningful and go beyond their normal conception of topics. She also recommended that everyone focus on down-ballot voting, as State legislatures do a lot more about abortion than we think. On that note, the discussion concluded to much applause.
~ James Spindler `27
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