Recent U.S. strikes on Iran have heightened tensions in the Middle East, raising new questions about the motivations behind the conflict as well as the risks of potential consequences across the region. While the escalation is often framed around nuclear weapons or regional tensions, many say the current situation is defined as much by strategic uncertainty and weakened deterrence as by traditional territorial disputes.
According to the William R. Cotter Distinguished Teaching Professor of Government Ken Rodman, the motivations behind the U.S. decision to strike Iran remain unclear. “The administration has given many contradictory explanations,” Rodman said. In a conventional foreign policy process, major military actions typically involve deliberation with nuclear experts, regional specialists, and military leaders, along with efforts to build both congressional and public support. In this case, that process was notably absent.
The claim that Iran posed an imminent nuclear threat has also been called into question. Rodman noted that Iran’s nuclear capability had already been weakened by previous strikes earlier in the year, making an immediate nuclear-based escalation unlikely. “The notion that there was an imminent threat from Iranian nuclear developments is implausible, to say the least,” he said. Instead, the strikes may have been designed to take advantage of Iran’s current vulnerabilities, yet with no clear message from the administration, the underlying strategy remains difficult to determine.
Mixed signals have added to the uncertainty. Some officials have framed the strikes as a contained air campaign. Others, including President Donald Trump, have suggested that additional military options, including ground troops, have not been ruled out. “There isn’t any clear communication coming from the administration as to what the purpose of this war is,” Rodman said.
From an international relations perspective, the conflict doesn’t conform to typical patterns. Historically, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear capabilities has been interpreted partly as a deterrent strategy against the United States and Israel, weapons that prevent stronger powers from taking military action.
That, however, has been superseded by events. The network of allies Iran relied on for deterrence has significantly weakened. For decades, Iran leaned on groups such as Hezbollah to threaten retaliation against Israel. Following Israel’s recent military operations, that threat has weakened significantly. “The threat posed by Hezbollah has never been weaker since it first emerged in the early 1980s,” Rodman said.
These shifts are also affecting other regional powers. When the Obama administration negotiated the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, both Israel and Saudi Arabia opposed it, fearing that lifting sanctions would strengthen Iran’s influence. Those shared concerns helped drive the cooperation that eventually produced the Abraham Accords. Today, however, some Gulf states worry that continued escalation could destabilize the region further.
Despite rising tensions, Rodman says the conflict is unlikely to draw in major powers like Russia or China directly. Russia remains focused on Ukraine, while China has generally avoided projecting military force beyond its immediate region.
The more immediate danger, Rodman warned, is potential destabilization within Iran itself. Efforts to weaken the Iranian government could create “ungoverned spaces” where state authority collapses, conditions similar to those that followed the U.S. invasion of Iraq and contributed to the rise of ISIS.
The path toward de-escalation remains uncertain. Opposition to the United States is central to how Iran’s government justifies its rule, making compromises politically costly. The absence of well-defined U.S. goals offer little foundation for negotiation. “It’s not entirely clear how this ends,” Rodman said.
For now, the region holds its breath, caught between a conflict with no clear purpose and no clear path forward to peace.
~ Mia Dinunzio `28
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